Doctors, public health units and much of the populace are in revolt against a party and Ontario premier whose vaccine strategy is revolting — and they look beatable in the 2022 Ontario election.
1. no, I *definitely* do not think building sprawl housing is a losing issue for the Tories. Quite the opposite. This is what the electorate very, very much wants. Building more housing is a core public concern and wasteful sprawl housing is very much Ontario's favourite kind, by a long long way.
2. while i suspect that pandemic scale-tipping like the uneven vaccine rollout is likely to motivate poor voters, if they weren't alredy motivated (they aren't)... it's not likely to be unpopular with liberals or to disaffect any Tory voters. liberals especially Liberals very much believe in punishing those people with policy choices wherever possible. (I wholeheartedly agree that using flu-shot stats was dumb as public health, but it was very smart in targeting vaccines to the people most likely to complain about not being in front of the line)
3. incidentally, the disquiet over our shockingly cack-handed vaccine rollout (trollout?) will disappear as wealthy people grab their doses over the spring. there won;t be any memory of this by mid-summer, even though actual infection numbers will still be comparatively bad.
4. Liberals were out of favour with Ontario voters for *four entire decades* partly within my lifetime. Do not underestimate the degree to which voters can simply sideline any party.
5. Ford did not hornswoggle anyone. He has governed as he essentially promised to: as a doctrinaire conservative with a cruel streak, and a mandate to put the former government and its people In Their Place. He won a Resentment Election and has governed with a Resentment Government. (and in fact, he's been less capricious and cruel than one would have anticipated, knowing Doug Ford as one does). There is not really a Tory vote bloc that had any illusions, especially policy-based ones, about Ford and his government. And yes, this is why their polling vote remains extremely solid, and why there have been very few unfaithful Tories in those polls. No one is digesting much if any of Ford's 38-42%. Someone's gonna have to beat it.
6. As for vaccinations being a spoil of government, and governments trying to vaccinate their demographic first... I think everyone everywhere agrees that older people are by far and away the most important demographic to vaccinate, and I think we can agree that older people are by far and away the Tories' strongest demographic. So I don't know how you'd separate cynical politics from good policy on this front.
True, we have had a Resentment Election and a Resentment Government. But hate has a shelf life. It's hard to sustain that.
There has been a lot of pushback from municipalities and citizen groups about Highway 413 and sprawl (as you know). There is always a chance that can ripple out toward (ideally) the NDP. I am choosing to believe we could have a change election; you never know.
Secondly, while I appreciate we have different social loops, middle-of-the-road people seem really upset about the "rotating mockdowns" hurting small business. They're fatigued about the schools going onllne-only. That is an area a party should attack in order to show Ford to be out-of-touch.
On No. 5, remember that voters outside of the GTHA were not familiar with how terrible Doug Ford is, or how little substance there is behind his over-promising. I know people outside our bubble voted for his party not knowing what they were buying ... especially in the 905 'swing region.'
On No. 6, the separation is pretty clear. For instance, people are wondering why people in their 50s who work-from-home are getting vaccinated before the 20-something essential worker who takes the bus to their factory job. And, clearly, the cynical politics have led to poor execution of the policies. It is possible the systemic racism in the policy process won't amount to a hill of beans, but we have seen centrist parties seize on that the way Trudeau did with Harper in 2015.
My point was to get out in front of any resignation that assumes another ONPC/Ford win. It might well happen, and I'll buy you a beverage if you are right.
And now I can't get Kinisons "ohh oohhh" out of my head. Lol.
lol wow do i ever disagree with a lot of this!
From bottom to top:
1. no, I *definitely* do not think building sprawl housing is a losing issue for the Tories. Quite the opposite. This is what the electorate very, very much wants. Building more housing is a core public concern and wasteful sprawl housing is very much Ontario's favourite kind, by a long long way.
2. while i suspect that pandemic scale-tipping like the uneven vaccine rollout is likely to motivate poor voters, if they weren't alredy motivated (they aren't)... it's not likely to be unpopular with liberals or to disaffect any Tory voters. liberals especially Liberals very much believe in punishing those people with policy choices wherever possible. (I wholeheartedly agree that using flu-shot stats was dumb as public health, but it was very smart in targeting vaccines to the people most likely to complain about not being in front of the line)
3. incidentally, the disquiet over our shockingly cack-handed vaccine rollout (trollout?) will disappear as wealthy people grab their doses over the spring. there won;t be any memory of this by mid-summer, even though actual infection numbers will still be comparatively bad.
4. Liberals were out of favour with Ontario voters for *four entire decades* partly within my lifetime. Do not underestimate the degree to which voters can simply sideline any party.
5. Ford did not hornswoggle anyone. He has governed as he essentially promised to: as a doctrinaire conservative with a cruel streak, and a mandate to put the former government and its people In Their Place. He won a Resentment Election and has governed with a Resentment Government. (and in fact, he's been less capricious and cruel than one would have anticipated, knowing Doug Ford as one does). There is not really a Tory vote bloc that had any illusions, especially policy-based ones, about Ford and his government. And yes, this is why their polling vote remains extremely solid, and why there have been very few unfaithful Tories in those polls. No one is digesting much if any of Ford's 38-42%. Someone's gonna have to beat it.
6. As for vaccinations being a spoil of government, and governments trying to vaccinate their demographic first... I think everyone everywhere agrees that older people are by far and away the most important demographic to vaccinate, and I think we can agree that older people are by far and away the Tories' strongest demographic. So I don't know how you'd separate cynical politics from good policy on this front.
True, we have had a Resentment Election and a Resentment Government. But hate has a shelf life. It's hard to sustain that.
There has been a lot of pushback from municipalities and citizen groups about Highway 413 and sprawl (as you know). There is always a chance that can ripple out toward (ideally) the NDP. I am choosing to believe we could have a change election; you never know.
Secondly, while I appreciate we have different social loops, middle-of-the-road people seem really upset about the "rotating mockdowns" hurting small business. They're fatigued about the schools going onllne-only. That is an area a party should attack in order to show Ford to be out-of-touch.
On No. 5, remember that voters outside of the GTHA were not familiar with how terrible Doug Ford is, or how little substance there is behind his over-promising. I know people outside our bubble voted for his party not knowing what they were buying ... especially in the 905 'swing region.'
On No. 6, the separation is pretty clear. For instance, people are wondering why people in their 50s who work-from-home are getting vaccinated before the 20-something essential worker who takes the bus to their factory job. And, clearly, the cynical politics have led to poor execution of the policies. It is possible the systemic racism in the policy process won't amount to a hill of beans, but we have seen centrist parties seize on that the way Trudeau did with Harper in 2015.
My point was to get out in front of any resignation that assumes another ONPC/Ford win. It might well happen, and I'll buy you a beverage if you are right.